Viendo archivo del miércoles, 23 abril 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 113 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Apr 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels this period. Region 338 (N18W32) produced an M5/1n flare at 23/0106Z. Type II (513 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 380 sfu tenflare were associated with this event. A partial halo CME was also detected on LASCO imagery. An M2/1f flare also occurred in this region at 23/1556Z. This complex region continues to develop in both size and magnetic complexity. Region 339 (N16W84) was quite active as it approaches the west limb. It produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C5 flare at 23/1213Z. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 343 (N06E60) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 maintains potential for further M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speeds near 500 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Ongoing high speed coronal hole flow will likely be enhanced by transient flow over the next three days. Weak impact from the April 22, M2 flare and CME are possible on day one. There is a higher probability for CME impacts on days two and three from the M5 and associated CME that occurred early this period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Apr a 26 Apr
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Apr 133
  Previsto   24 Apr-26 Apr  135/140/145
  Media de 90 Días        23 Apr 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/022
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  015/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Apr a 26 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor20%30%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor30%35%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%15%10%

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