Viendo archivo del jueves, 24 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 114 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels this period.
Region 338 (N18W45) produced an M3/1n at 24/1253Z with associated
Type II (830 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A partial halo CME was
also detected on LASCO imagery. Region 339 (N16,L=337) was active
during the period, producing several C-class flares as it crossed
the west limb, the largest being a C8 flare at 24/1553Z. No
significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
New Regions 344 (N16E39), 345 (S17E74), and 346 (N16E74) were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 338 may produce futher M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with isolated
minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speeds
up to near 600 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. High speed
coronal hole flow may be enhanced by transient flow over the next
three days. Weak CME impact from an M5 flare on April 23 are
possible on days one and two. A CME impact produced by today's M3
flare may arrive on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Apr a 27 Apr
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Apr 128 Previsto 25 Apr-27 Apr 130/135/135 Media de 90 Días 24 Apr 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Apr 013/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Apr 020/023 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 020/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Apr a 27 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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