Viendo archivo del martes, 22 abril 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 112 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Apr 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 338 (N18W20) continued to develop in both size and magnetic complexity. It was responsible for most of the C-class activity this period, including a C4/Sf flare at 22/2011Z. There were some indications that a weak delta configuration was developing in this region. A Type II (960 km/s) radio sweep was detected at 22/0716Z, associated with a CME off the NE limb. A CME was also detected earlier in the period, associated with a B-class flare in Region 336 (N14E10). The largest region on the disk - Region 337 (S14E29), exhibited some decay and simplification over the past 24 hours. These CMEs do not appear to be Earthward directed. Minor C-class activity was observed in Regions 337 (S14E29), and 339 (N16W71). New Region 342 (N18W07) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance for a low level M-class flare from Region 337 or Region 338.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. A high speed solar wind stream that began early on 21 April continues. Solar wind speeds exceeded 600 km/s early in the period, but gradually declined to below 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The most disturbed periods are expected late on day one through day two due to the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with the M2/1n flare on 21/1307Z. A return to predominantly unsettled conditions is expected on day three with occasional active periods possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Apr a 25 Apr
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Apr 132
  Previsto   23 Apr-25 Apr  140/145/145
  Media de 90 Días        22 Apr 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Apr  012/021
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  015/022
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Apr a 25 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%30%
Tormenta Menor20%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%50%40%
Tormenta Menor30%30%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%05%

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