Viendo archivo del lunes, 21 abril 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 111 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Apr 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 338 (N18W05) produced an M2/1n flare at 21/1307Z. Considerable radio emissions were associated with this flare, including a Type II (1200 km/s) and Type IV sweep, and a 300 sfu tenflare. A partial halo CME was also noted from LASCO imagery. This beta-gamma region is in a slow growth phase with a moderate increase in the number of sunspots visible over the past 24 hours. Region 337 (S13E43) is the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, and now contains a weak delta configuration in the 350 millionths of white light areal coverage. Only minor C-class flares have been observed so far from this region. Minor C-class activity was also observed in Region 339 (N16W58). New Regions 340 (S04E55), and 341 (S10E74), were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Regions 337 or 338.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active levels with isolated high latitude minor storm periods. A high speed solar wind stream, with winds ranging from 520 - 600 km/s, continues to buffet the geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through day one. Minor storm periods are possible on days two and three with the anticipated arrival of the CME from today's M2 flare.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Apr a 24 Apr
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Apr 126
  Previsto   22 Apr-24 Apr  135/140/145
  Media de 90 Días        21 Apr 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Apr  012/016
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Apr  015/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  012/015-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Apr a 24 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%40%40%
Tormenta Menor10%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%50%50%
Tormenta Menor15%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%15%15%

All times in UTC

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