Viendo archivo del martes, 25 marzo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 084 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Mar 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The largest flare of the period was a B9.1/Sf from Region 321 (N05E65) that occurred at 25/1636Z. This region underwent penumbral growth during the period. Region 319 (N13E27) experienced slight development during the period and produced a lone B-class flare early in the day. A small 6 degree disappearing filament was observed between 25/1700 and 1800Z which was centered at N38W10. Regions 322 (N19W72) and 323 (S07E55) were newly assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event from region 321.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels until the onset of a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. The coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective early on the first day of the forecast period. Predominantly active conditions are anticipated and minor storm to major storm periods are possible through the first two days of the interval. Unsettled to active conditions are expected by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Mar a 28 Mar
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Mar 109
  Previsto   26 Mar-28 Mar  115/125/135
  Media de 90 Días        25 Mar 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Mar  005/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Mar a 28 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%25%20%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%30%
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%10%

All times in UTC

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