Viendo archivo del lunes, 7 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 097 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S13W85)
produced a C2 flare at 07/0304Z. Region 324 was to be the source of
the majority of activity during the past twenty-four hours. Region
324 continues to simplify and decay as it transits the west limb.
Region 325 (N15W63) and Region 331 (S07W34) are the two largest
regions on the disk but are relatively unchanged since yesterday.
New Region 332 (N11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 324, 325, and 330 (N07E38) continue to
represent C-class potential with a slight chance of a minor M-class
event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than
2 MeV electrons at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. A weak CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April is
expected to arrive late today or early on day one. A returning
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce unsettled to
isolated minor storm levels on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Apr a 10 Apr
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Apr 116 Previsto 08 Apr-10 Apr 110/105/100 Media de 90 Días 07 Apr 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 015/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Apr a 10 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 03% | 07% |
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