Viendo archivo del domingo, 6 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 096 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S12W74)
produced two C-class flare with the largest a C5 flare at 06/1928Z.
Region 324 continues to show gradual decay and has simplified to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The two largest regions on the
disk, Region 325 (N13W48) and Region 330 (N07E38), have both
increased in spot count and have developed beta magnetic
configurations. Area coverage has been relatively unchanged.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 324, 325, 330 have C-class potential and may
produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. High
speed stream effects have diminished with solar wind velocity
decreasing to near 450 km/s and Bz oscillations subsiding.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels. There is a
slight chance of a weak CME shock late on day two or early on day
three, which could produce isolated active conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Apr a 09 Apr
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Apr 126 Previsto 07 Apr-09 Apr 115/110/105 Media de 90 Días 06 Apr 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Apr 016/023 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 012/012-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Apr a 09 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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