Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 045 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Feb 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels due to an
impulsive M1.2/Sf flare that occurred at 14/0918Z from Region 284
(N12W95) which was spotless upon exiting the disk. Several lesser
C-class flares also occurred from this region throughout the period.
Region 282 (N10W58) has shown some growth in white-light spot
coverage and magnetic complexity during the interval, although it
produced only minor flare activity. Regions 276 (S14W90) and 280
(S04W81) were responsible for the remainder of the minor flare
activity seen today. New Region 287 (N12W50) was newly numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Early in the
period the solar wind speed began a gradual increase to a current
500 km/s rise, this, along with frequent periods of southward Bz
allowed for the active conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor
storm conditions are possible, especially at high latitudes,
beginning on day one due to a large recurrent coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Feb 131 Previsto 15 Feb-17 Feb 130/125/125 Media de 90 Días 14 Feb 149
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 012/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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