Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 044 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Feb 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 282 (N10W45)
produced two low level C-class flares today, the largest was a C2.3
flare (location correlated using SXI imagery) that occurred at
12/2112Z. There was very little change seen in white-light coverage
or magnetic complexity during the interval, region remains a simple
beta group. Region 280 (S06W68) produced a B8.4/Sf flare at
13/0129Z and remains a very simple beta magnetic complex. A filament
eruption in the southeastern quadrant of the disk (began at
approximately 12/1330Z), seen in SOHO/EIT and SXI imagery, produced
a narrow CME (LASCO imagery) that doesn't appear as though it will
become geoeffective. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Day two may experience
isolated active to minor storm conditions as the leading edge of the
recurrent favorably positioned coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
Day three should be at predominantly unsettled to active levels with
minor storm conditions possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Feb 131 Previsto 14 Feb-16 Feb 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 13 Feb 149
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 008/012-010/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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