Viendo archivo del sábado, 8 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 039 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Feb 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare from newly
numbered Region 285 (S10E75) was the highlight of the period. Just a
single sunspot visible so far in this new region, but limb proximity
is hindering a thorough analysis. Regions 274 (S05W76), 276
(S13W14,) and 278 (N18E26), the largest regions on the visible disk,
exhibited occasional plage fluctuations, but all are in a decay
phase with relatively simple magnetic configurations. New Region 284
(N12W14) was also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Several regions on the visible disk have potential to produce an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period between 08/1200 - 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Feb a 11 Feb
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Feb 139 Previsto 09 Feb-11 Feb 140/140/140 Media de 90 Días 08 Feb 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Feb 008/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Feb 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Feb a 11 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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