Viendo archivo del domingo, 5 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 005 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 243 (S19W60)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C5.8/Sf event occurring
at 05/0617 UTC. Regions 242 (S08E20) and 244 (S23E27) were
responsible for several low level B and C-class flares during the
period. All three of these regions slowed from previous days growth
trend with little change noted in areal spot coverage or magnetic
complexity during the period. A 23 degree disappearing solar
filament began to erupt at approximately 05 0900 UTC with an
associated CME that does not appear to have an earth-bound
trajectory. A bright surge just beyond the east limb (with a radial
vector of .26 degrees) occurred at 05/0727 UTC which is believed to
be old returning region 226. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 242 has a very slight chance of producing a low
level M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jan a 08 Jan
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Jan 148 Previsto 06 Jan-08 Jan 150/150/155 Media de 90 Días 05 Jan 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jan 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Jan 006/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jan a 08 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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