Viendo archivo del lunes, 23 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 357 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was a C3 flare from Region 226 (S28W78) at 23/0719 UTC. Region 226
continues its gradual decay and has simplified to a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 224 (S15W68) has shown rapid growth
in the last 24 hours with increasing penumbral coverage to 470
millionths. This region has also developed a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 229 (N22W51) has decreased in magnetic
complexity to a simple beta configuration. New Region 233 (N11E42)
was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 224, 226, and 230 have the potential for
M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained southward Bz and a six-hour period of elevated solar wind
velocity (peak velocity 600 km/s) resulted in active conditions at
mid-latitudes and minor storm conditions on the planetary index.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of
isolated active conditions. A weak CME shock is possible on day one
of the period due to the M1 event that occurred on 21 December.
Days two and three of the forecast period are expected to be quiet
to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Dec a 26 Dec
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Dec 159 Previsto 24 Dec-26 Dec 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 23 Dec 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Dec 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Dec 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 015/015-012/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Dec a 26 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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