Viendo archivo del jueves, 7 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 311 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N18W36) is in decay
phase, but produced a C7/Sf flare at 06/2316Z. Region 180 (S10W14)
continues to grow and now maintains three different delta
configurations in a spot group nearing 600 millionths of areal
coverage. Despite its size and apparent complexity, this region has
been relatively quiet, producing only occasional C-class flares. New
region 190 (S22E54) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 180 and 177 have potential to produce M-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Coronal hole high speed
stream flow is declining, following peak speeds that exceeded 600
km/s. The sustained southward IMF Bz that persisted for the past few
days also appears to have ended. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit have again reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
during local nighttime hours. We are expecting to transition back
into a high speed stream on day three as a recurrent coronal hole
rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Nov a 10 Nov
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Nov 190 Previsto 08 Nov-10 Nov 190/190/185 Media de 90 Días 07 Nov 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Nov 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/010-008/010-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Nov a 10 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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