Viendo archivo del miércoles, 6 noviembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 310 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Nov 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N17W22) produced the largest event of the period - a C9/Sf flare at 05/2201Z. This region has shown some decay and has been relatively quiet since producing the C9 flare. Region 180 (S10W01) continues to develop both in size and complexity. It now exhibits one, maybe two, delta configurations in a spot group exceeding 550 millionths of areal coverage. Several C-class flare were observed in this region, the largest being a C7/Sf at 0532Z. An associated Type II sweep (405 km/s) and CME were also observed, but the CME did not appear to be earthward directed. Three new regions were numbered today, and two of them - Region 187 (N07E07) and 188 (N11E22) produced minor C-class flares late in the period. Region 189 (N12E56) was also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 180 will likely produce C and M-class activity. Region 177 has potential for a small M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with minor storm periods at high latitudes. High speed coronal hole effects with persistent southward Bz are causing the disturbance. There are also indications of a weak transient passage late in the period, which is enhancing this disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active periods with occasional minor, or even major storm periods at high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Nov a 09 Nov
Clase M55%55%55%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Nov 185
  Previsto   07 Nov-09 Nov  190/190/190
  Media de 90 Días        06 Nov 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Nov  015/019
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  015/017
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  012/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Nov a 09 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%20%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa11%06%02%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%35%25%
Tormenta Menor30%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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