Viendo archivo del miércoles, 18 septiembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 261 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Sep 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was low with several minor C-class
flares observed throughout the period. Region 119 (S14E04)
exhibited considerable growth and was responsible for majority of
the C-class flares. Renewed complexity developed in Region 105
(S09W70) and occasional C-class flares were observed. White light
areal coverage still exceeds 500 millionths in this moderately
complex beta-gamma region. Active Region 114 (S11W57) showed
significant decay over the last 24 hours. New Regions 124 (N03W49)
and 125 (S08E69) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Best chance for an isolated M-class flare is from
developing Region 119 or Region 105 as it approaches the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods. The disturbed conditions are due to the elevated
solar wind speed (550 km/s).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly unsettled levels with isolated active
periods. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on the latter
half of day one due to the C8 flare and partial halo CME that
occurred early on 17 Sep. Expect conditions to return to unsettled
levels as the expected storm subsides on day two.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Sep 177 Previsto 19 Sep-21 Sep 175/165/160 Media de 90 Días 18 Sep 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 011/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 013/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 015/020-015/015-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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