Viendo archivo del martes, 17 septiembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 260 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Sep 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. The most impressive event of
the period was a long duration C8/1f flare and associated CME at
17/0820Z from Region 114 (S11W43). This region has been in gradual
decline, but still maintains moderate complexity. Region 110
(N17W75) was the likely source of the C5 flare at 17/0205Z. A CME
with Type II radio sweep (1000km/s) accompanied this flare. Region
119 (S14E17) continues to develop and produced several minor flares
in the past 24 hours, the largest being a C8/Sn at 17/0921Z. The
largest region on the visible disk is Region 105 (S08W56) at 560
millionths of white light area. This moderately complex region was
relatively quiet, producing occasional subflares. New Region 123
(S16E30) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Several regions on the disk have the potential for an
isolated low M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with one active period
between 17/12-15Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at
moderate to high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled. Active periods are likely on day
three in response to today's long duration C8 flare and CME from
Region 114.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Sep 194 Previsto 18 Sep-20 Sep 195/190/190 Media de 90 Días 17 Sep 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Sep 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 015/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 010/012-010/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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