Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 214 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 39 (S15W70)
produced an M1/0F event at 02/1053 UTC. Regions 39, 44 (S21W76),
and 50 (S08W59) all retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration
today. A new region was numbered today as Region 59 (N14E67).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Several regions on the disk are capable of producing
an isolated major event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm conditions. A
shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 01/2220 UTC, resulting
in a sudden impulse of 66 nt at 01/2313 UTC recorded on the Boulder
magnetometer.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Periods of active levels are
possible for August 03-04 from a coronal hole passage.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Aug a 05 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 65% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Aug 180 Previsto 03 Aug-05 Aug 175/170/165 Media de 90 Días 02 Aug 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Aug 027/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Aug 025/028 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Aug a 05 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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