Viendo archivo del domingo, 28 julio 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 209 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Jul 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 39 (S15W04) produced an M2/Sf flare at 28/0035 UTC as well as occasional C-class flares. No significant changes occurred within Region 39. It remained large and magnetically complex with strong, persistent delta configurations within its leading and trailing spots. Region 44 (S21W11) produced isolated C-class flares during the period. Slight decay was noted in the leading and trailing portions of the region. However, it became slightly more magnetically complex as new flux emerged that strengthened the delta within its intermediate spots. Region 50 (S07E09) was in a rapid growth phase and produced isolated subflares. New Regions 52 (N09E17), 53 (S17E24), and 54 (S21E70) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are likely from Regions 39 and 44. Either region could produce a major flare during the period. Region 50 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels, possibly due to a weak negative-polarity high-speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained enhanced and continued to gradually decrease toward background levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
A geomagnetic field disturbance is expected to begin early on 29 July and continue into 30 July in response to the M8/halo-CME event of 26 July. Active to major storm levels are possible during this disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 31 July. Region 39 or 44 may produce a proton flare during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Jul a 31 Jul
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X30%30%30%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Jul 239
  Previsto   29 Jul-31 Jul  245/245/240
  Media de 90 Días        28 Jul 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Jul  011/019
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Jul  010/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  025/030-018/020-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Jul a 31 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%30%25%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo45%35%30%
Tormenta Menor25%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%

< < Ir a la visión general diaria

Últimas noticias

Apoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!

Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!

54%
Apoya a SpaceWeatherLive con nuestro merchandise
Échale un ojo a nuestro merchandise

Hechos clima espacial

Último evento clase X2024/05/05X1.2
Último evento clase M2024/05/06M1.6
Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas2024/05/02Kp7- (G3)
Días sin manchas
Último día sin manchas2022/06/08
Promedio de manchas solares mensuales
abril 2024136.5 +31.6
Last 30 days156.6 +63.6

Efemérides*

Llamarada solar
11998X3.81
21998M4.04
32015M2.81
42014M2.65
52012M1.96
ApG
11988106G3
2196060G3
3198667G3
4194641G3
5197150G2
*desde 1994

Redes sociales