Viendo archivo del sábado, 27 julio 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 208 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jul 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 44 (S22E03) produced two major flares early in the period: an M8/2n at 26/2112 UTC and an M5 at 26/2217 UTC, both associated with moderate to strong discrete radio bursts. The M8 flare was also associated with a full-halo CME. Both major flares occurred along the magnetic neutral line separating Regions 44 and 39 (S16E07). Some decay was observed in the leader spots of Region 44, but it remained large and magnetically complex with a magnetic delta configuration evident within its intermediate spots. Region 39 produced isolated C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 27/0212 UTC. It also remained large and complex, but changed little during the period. Strong magnetic delta configurations persisted within its leading and trailing spots. Region 45 (N06W25) was in a growth phase and displayed minor polarity mixing. New Region 51 (S17E65) was assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are expected from Regions 39 and 44. There is also a fair chance for a major flare from either of these regions.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels during most of the period. This activity may have been due to a weak high-speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/0655 UTC ended at 27/0320 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels at the start of the period. Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels beginning late on 28 July as today's halo CME reaches Earth. This disturbance is expected to subside to mostly unsettled levels by 30 July. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jul a 30 Jul
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X30%30%30%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Jul 231
  Previsto   28 Jul-30 Jul  230/225/220
  Media de 90 Días        27 Jul 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jul  010/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  013/017
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  010/012-025/030-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jul a 30 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%40%30%
Tormenta Menor10%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%45%35%
Tormenta Menor15%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%15%10%

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