Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 205 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 39 (S15E48)
produced an M1/1f at 24/1555 UTC with an associated Type IV radio
sweep. This region continues to maintain a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration and has increased in spot count since
yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 45
(N04E17) and 46 (N14E22).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 36 (S07W42) and 39 are both capable of
producing a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that started 22/0655 UTC continues with the
tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for 25 and 26 July.
This activity is a result of the X4 event at 23/0035 UTC. The
geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 27 July.
The proton event currently in progress is likely to continue for the
next 24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Jul a 27 Jul
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Jul 208 Previsto 25 Jul-27 Jul 210/210/215 Media de 90 Días 24 Jul 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Jul 011/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Jul 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 030/030-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Jul a 27 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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