Viendo archivo del miércoles, 5 junio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jun 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 156 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jun 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a long-duration C3 at 05/0945 UTC. This x-ray flare seems
to be related to activity in Region 9979 (S30E11) and was followed
by a faint Earth-directed CME. Region 9973 (S16E29) remains the
largest sunspot group presently on the disk. It is slowly decaying
and has not produced significant activity in the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9973 appears to be the most likely candidate for
M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Increased activity may
occur on 07 to 08 June in response to the CME mentioned in Part IA.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jun a 08 Jun
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Jun 159 Previsto 06 Jun-08 Jun 155/150/150 Media de 90 Días 05 Jun 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jun 013/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Jun 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 008/008-015/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jun a 08 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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