Viendo archivo del miércoles, 8 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 128 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9934 (S16W19)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf flare occurred at
08/1324 UTC. This region has shown a slight increase in penumbral
coverage. It has also acquired a delta magnetic class spot in the
trailing portion of the spot cluster. A C1/Sf occurred in Region
9935 (S17W41) at 07/2245 UTC. Optically uncorrelated, minor C-class
flares comprised the rest of the days flare activity. New Region
9946 (S08E65) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9934 has the potential of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A
chance for isolated active conditions exists for the first day of
the forecast, due to a CME passage from the M1 event at 07/0346 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 May a 11 May
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 May 187 Previsto 09 May-11 May 190/195/195 Media de 90 Días 08 May 188
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 May 008/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 May 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 May a 11 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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