Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 abril 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 108 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Apr 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only C-class flares occurred
over the past 24 hours. Some of these flares did not have an obvious
source on the visible disk and may have originated from beyond the
limb. Region 9906 (S14W55) remains large and complex but has shown
some sunspot decay and magnetic simplification. New Regions 9911
(S13E23) and 9912 (N11E28) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in Region 9906. A major flare
in this region remains a possibility.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels in
response to the CME that impacted the Earth early yesterday. ACE
solar wind information suggests that this CME has passed. The
geomagnetic field is currently at active levels. Yesterday's greater
than 10 MeV proton event has ended: start 17/1530 UTC, maximum flux
(24 pfu) 17/1540 UTC, and end 18/0035 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the end of 18
April UTC. Another CME is expected to impact the Earth early on 19
April UTC from an LDE/CME that occurred on 17 April. Minor to major
storm conditions are possible for the 24-48 hours following this
CME's arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to
unsettled to active levels by the end of the 3-day forecast period.
Another greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region 9906
generates a major flare.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Apr a 21 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Apr 188 Previsto 19 Apr-21 Apr 180/175/170 Media de 90 Días 18 Apr 201
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Apr 027/041 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Apr 045/050 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 040/040-030/050-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Apr a 21 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 05% |
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