Viendo archivo de jueves, 18 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 108 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only C-class flares occurred over the past 24 hours. Some of these flares did not have an obvious source on the visible disk and may have originated from beyond the limb. Region 9906 (S14W55) remains large and complex but has shown some sunspot decay and magnetic simplification. New Regions 9911 (S13E23) and 9912 (N11E28) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class activity is expected in Region 9906. A major flare in this region remains a possibility.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels in response to the CME that impacted the Earth early yesterday. ACE solar wind information suggests that this CME has passed. The geomagnetic field is currently at active levels. Yesterday's greater than 10 MeV proton event has ended: start 17/1530 UTC, maximum flux (24 pfu) 17/1540 UTC, and end 18/0035 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the end of 18 April UTC. Another CME is expected to impact the Earth early on 19 April UTC from an LDE/CME that occurred on 17 April. Minor to major storm conditions are possible for the 24-48 hours following this CME's arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to unsettled to active levels by the end of the 3-day forecast period. Another greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region 9906 generates a major flare.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Apr a 21 Apr
Clase M75%50%40%
Clase X10%05%01%
Protón10%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Apr 188
  Previsto   19 Apr-21 Apr  180/175/170
  Media de 90 Días        18 Apr 201
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Apr  027/041
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  045/050
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  040/040-030/050-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Apr a 21 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%50%30%
Tormenta Menor30%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%50%30%
Tormenta Menor40%30%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%15%05%

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