Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 109 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9906 (S14W66) produced several C-class subflares during the past day. The largest was a C3/Sf at 19/1822 UTC. This region continues to decay slowly but retains appreciable size and magnetic complexity. New Regions 9913 (S15E23) and 9914 (N04E72) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9906 appears to be capable of M-class activity, including an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm. A shock was observed at ACE at 19/0804 UTC and was followed by an SI at ground magnetometers (36 nT at Boulder) at 19/0836 UTC. This shock is believed to be associated with the LDE M2/CME that occurred on 17 April.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels for about the next 12 hours as the current CME passes. The field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of the 3-day forecast period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region 9906 produces a major flare.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Apr a 22 Apr
Clase M50%30%30%
Clase X05%01%01%
Protón05%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Apr 180
  Previsto   20 Apr-22 Apr  175/170/170
  Media de 90 Días        19 Apr 201
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Apr  035/054
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  030/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  030/040-012/015-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Apr a 22 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo60%30%10%
Tormenta Menor30%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo45%40%15%
Tormenta Menor40%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%

All times in UTC

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