Viendo archivo del viernes, 22 marzo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 081 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Mar 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9866 (S10W96) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 22/1114 UTC as it crossed the west limb. The flare was associated with a halo CME and a proton event at greater than 10 MeV. Region 9866 was in a slow decay phase during the last few days of its passage. Region 9878 (N08E54) produced a C8 X-ray flare at 22/0618 UTC. Minor growth may have occurred in this region. Region 9871 (S20W47) retained minor magnetic complexity near its leader spots, but was relatively stable. New Regions 9881 (S05W08) and 9882 (N15E74) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at 22/2020 UTC in the wake of today's long-duration M1 flare. The event was in progress and slowly increasing at the close of the period with a reading of 10.5 pfu at 22/2100 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, there will be a chance for brief active levels on 25 March in response to today's CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 23 March.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Mar a 25 Mar
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón99%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Mar 172
  Previsto   23 Mar-25 Mar  170/165/165
  Media de 90 Días        22 Mar 212
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Mar  005/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Mar a 25 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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