Viendo archivo del sábado, 23 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 054 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/Sf at 23/0630Z from developing Region 9841 (S20W33). Region
9830 (S19W49) continues to be the largest and the most active region on
the visible disk, and produced several minor C-class flares. This
region has been in slow decay over the past few days; however, new
flux emergence was noted today and a weak delta configuration still
exists. Minor C-class activity was also observed in Region 9839
(S18W20). New Regions 9844 (N22E33), and 9845 (N15E71) were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 is capable of producing isolated M-class
flares with the slight chance of a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods early in the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. The minor
geomagnetic disturbance expected today following the 20 Feb CME, has
not yet materialized. It is unlikely that we will see any impact
from this CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Feb a 26 Feb
| Clase M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Feb 188 Previsto 24 Feb-26 Feb 190/185/185 Media de 90 Días 23 Feb 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Feb 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 010/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Feb a 26 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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