Viendo archivo del jueves, 28 marzo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 087 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Mar 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The period began with multiple low level C-class flares that went optically uncorrelated. Region 9880 (N09W63) may have been responsible for several of the minor C-class flares and underwent slight decay late in the period. The gamma portion of yesterday's magnetic classification is no longer evident. Region 9885 (N11E69) is believed responsible for the largest flare during the period, producing a C7 x-ray flare at 28/1800 UTC. This region has shown steady growth in penumbral coverage. Region 9878 (N09W26) was unimpressive this period and has been in steady decay, the delta spot observed yesterday has become two distinct separate spots. Although less magnetically complex, this region retains a gamma magnetic signature. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9880 and 9885 are magnetically complex enough to produce isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity levels were at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field levels are expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Mar a 31 Mar
Clase M45%45%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Mar 176
  Previsto   29 Mar-31 Mar  170/170/165
  Media de 90 Días        28 Mar 206
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Mar  003/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  003/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  005/008-006/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Mar a 31 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa02%02%02%

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