Viendo archivo del sábado, 9 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 068 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of a
long-duration M2/1f flare from Region 9866 (S10E73) at 09/1856 UTC.
This region has rotated into better view and now appears as a large
and moderately complex bipolar group (in an Eko beta-gamma
configuration, with 560 millionths areal coverage in white light).
No reports of radio sweeps or SOHO/LASCO imagery, inferring
potential CME characteristics, were received prior to the end of the
period. Today's 10.7cm noon flux reading of 208sfu was likely
enhanced due to the flare activity, so the morning reading of 184sfu
has been substituted for the daily value. Other activity included
minor C-class flares from Region 9864 (N19E43). No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9866 is a likely source of additional, isolated
M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The moderate
enhancement of >2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit during
the past two days appeared to wane somewhat today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. A slight chance for
isolated active periods may exist for day three of the forecast
period, due to possible shock passage effects from today's M2 long
-duration flare event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Mar a 12 Mar
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Mar 184 Previsto 10 Mar-12 Mar 185/190/195 Media de 90 Días 09 Mar 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Mar 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Mar 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 005/006-005/006-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Mar a 12 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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