Viendo archivo del sábado, 9 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 040 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares were
observed during the period with the largest a C2/Sf from Region 9821
(S14E03) at 09/0817 UTC. This region has shown significant growth
since yesterday in both area and spot count. Three new regions were
numbered today as Region's 9823 (S05E24), 9824 (N21E67), and 9825
(N12E69).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance of increased activity with the addition of the new
regions numbered today in the northeast.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today
with a peak flux of 1130 pfu at 09/1530 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons
at geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain enhanced at moderate
to high levels for the next two to three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Feb a 12 Feb
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Feb 199 Previsto 10 Feb-12 Feb 205/205/200 Media de 90 Días 09 Feb 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Feb 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Feb a 12 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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