Viendo archivo del lunes, 21 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 021 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Activity consisted
of several minor C-class flares from three separate regions. Region
9788 (N18E13) produced the largest flare of the period, a C3/Sf
flare at 21/0329 UTC. This region continues to show growth in both
spot coverage and magnetic complexity. Region 9791 (S03W33) also
continues to show rapid growth and produced a minor C-class flare
late in the period. Region 9785 (N10W85) produced a small C-class
flare early in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. A chance for an isolated low-level M-class flare
remains possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may
experience isolated active conditions due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| Clase M | 45% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jan 225 Previsto 22 Jan-24 Jan 230/235/235 Media de 90 Días 21 Jan 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 006/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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