Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 290 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9658 (S15W35)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 17/1116 UTC and also increased in area
and magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma. Region 9661 (N16W08)
produced two minor C-class flares. This region remains the largest
on the disc and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
Region 9669 (N13E42) has increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma configuration. New Region 9671 (N15E32) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with the potential for an isolated high
condition. Region 9661 is rotating into geoeffective position and
has the potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring
the occurrence of an earth-directed CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Oct 217 Previsto 18 Oct-20 Oct 220/220/225 Media de 90 Días 17 Oct 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Oct 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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