Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 277 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 9636 (N13W70) and 9645
(S17W41) produced C2/Sf events early in the period. Several Type
III radio sweeps and discrete frequency radio bursts made up the
rest of today's activity. The partial halo CME seen on EIT imagery
yesterday appears to have been caused by a back-side source. Region
9636 and Region 9641 (S13W19) both showed an increase area coverage
of their respective spot coverage today. Three new groups were
numbered today, Region 9651 (S22W12), Region 9652 (N22E14), and
Region 9653 (S23E76). Region 9653 has a penumbral spot that can be
seen rotating onto the east limb and has a latitude of that in which
old Region 9608 had as it departed the west limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9636 and Region 9645 remain capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu.
Flux levels remain above event level at time of bulletin issue.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods possible early on the first day of forecast period due to
CME passage.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Oct a 07 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 99% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Oct 187 Previsto 05 Oct-07 Oct 185/190/195 Media de 90 Días 04 Oct 180
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Oct 026/053 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Oct 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 010/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Oct a 07 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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