Viendo archivo del jueves, 2 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 214 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity increased, but remained at low levels.
Region 9563 (N25E33) grew at a rapid pace and produced occasional
C-class subflares, including a C4/Sf at 02/1613 UTC associated with
a Type II radio sweep. Minor growth occurred in Regions 9557
(S20W15), 9564 (N14W54), and 9566 (N16E50), each of which produced
isolated subflares. Region 9566 also produced a C2/Sf flare at
02/1238 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. Gradual decay was
noted in Region 9561 (S13E24), which produced an isolated C-class
subflare early in the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar actrivity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9563 could produce an isolated
M-class flare, especially if its present rate of growth continues.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
forecast to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 03 -
04 August due to an expected CME passage associated with filament
disappearances on 31 July. Activity is expected to decline to
unsettled levels on 05 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Aug a 05 Aug
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Aug 121 Previsto 03 Aug-05 Aug 125/130/130 Media de 90 Días 02 Aug 149
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Aug 010/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Aug a 05 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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