Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 junio 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 155 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Jun 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9488 (S18E48) produced an M2/2b flare with associated tenflare of 210 sfu at 04/0812 UTC. This region also produced several lesser flares during the period, and now exhibits increased magnetic complexity, currently in a Cko/beta-gamma configuration. Another event of note occurred in spotless Region 9474 (N22W64) at 04/1633 UTC, when a C3/Sf flare and associated Type-II radio sweep was observed, along with a small, nearby filament disappearance. Some enhancement in 10MeV proton flux was observed following this event, indicating a well-connected location for this activity, though not expected to result in a proton event. CME activity was observed in association with today's events, but not appearing earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Region 9488 is a likely source of more M-class activity as it continues to develop, along with Region 9484 (S06W06), which remains magnetically complex and capable of producing moderate flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period at higher latitudes during 04/0000-0300 UTC. Coronal hole high speed stream effects appeared to end at about 0700 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first two days of the period. There is a chance for development of coronal hole effects with isolated active periods possible beginning on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Jun a 07 Jun
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 Jun 154
  Previsto   05 Jun-07 Jun  160/160/165
  Media de 90 Días        04 Jun 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 03 Jun  007/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  006/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Jun a 07 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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