Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 mayo 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 May 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 140 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 May 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Two highly impulsive M-class flares occurred during the period. Both were optically uncorrelated. The first was an M6 flare at 20/0603 UTC, with an accompanying Type II radio sweep (1200 km/s) and a 360 sfu 10 cm radio burst. EIT imagery shows that this event originated over the southwestern limb and was probably from Region 9455 (S17W90+). An impressive coronal mass ejection (CME) in conjunction with the flare can be seen on images from the LASCO/SOHO spacecraft. The CME appears to be non earth-directed. An M1 flare with an accompanying Type II radio sweep (1088 km/s) was detected at 20/0920 UTC. This event was most likely a backside event from the same region as the previously described M6 event. Region 9463 (N09E46) nearly doubled in size and spot count overnight and also developed into a more complex sunspot group classification (14 spot, Eko-Beta). Region 9465 (S08E63) was numbered as it rotated onto the disk, already showing a 4 spot Dao-Beta sunspot classification.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9461 (N22E10) and 9463 are both capable of producing isolated M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit became enhanced following today's M6 flare, but did not reach event criteria. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the first two days of the forecast period. Isolated active conditions may occur on the third day due to a potentially favorably positioned coronal hole and the subsequent high speed stream impacting earth. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit should continue to be at elevated levels for the first half of the period and then can expected to return to near background levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 May a 23 May
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 May 142
  Previsto   21 May-23 May  140/140/140
  Media de 90 Días        20 May 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 May  010/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 May  008/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  008/012-008/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 May a 23 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor05%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor10%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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