Viendo archivo del viernes, 27 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 117 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9433 (N18W39)
produced an M1/1f flare at 27/1915 UTC along with isolated C-class
subflares. Region 9433 began to gradually decay following
yesterday's M7/2b flare with decreased spot count and penumbral
coverage. However, a magnetic delta configuration persisted in the
trailer portion of the region, where most flare activity has
occurred. Region 9441 (N08E38) produced isolated subflares as it
gradually increased in spot count and penumbral coverage, though it
remained a moderate-sized, simply-structured spot group. New Region
9443 (S10E21), a small simple bipole, was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be at moderate
to high levels. Region 9433 is expected to produce mostly low-level
M-class flares. However, it may produce an isolated major flare
during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV electron flux became enhanced following
yesterdays M7/2b flare, but did not reach event levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
A geomagnetic disturbance is
expected to commence during the latter half of 28 April and continue
into 29 April following yesterday's M7/2b flare and associated
full-halo CME . Active to major storm levels will be possible during
this disturbance. Mostly unsettled levels are expected during 30
April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could increase to event
levels on 28 April. Region 9433 may produce a proton flare during
the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Apr a 30 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Apr 191 Previsto 28 Apr-30 Apr 185/180/175 Media de 90 Días 27 Apr 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Apr 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Apr 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 015/010-040/040-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Apr a 30 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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