Viendo archivo del domingo, 8 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 098 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
9415 (S21E05) produced no flares during the period, but remained
large and complex with a persistent magnetic delta structure within
its lead sunspot. The remaining regions were simply structured and
stable, including newly numbered Regions 9423 (N21E03) and 9424
(S16E34).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Quiet to unsettled levels occurred through 08/1030 UTC. A
CME-related shock front reached the ACE spacecraft at 08/1034 UTC
followed by a sudden impulse (SI) at 08/1101 UTC (58 nT, as measured
by the Boulder magnetometer). Field activity increased to active to
major storm levels following the SI. The CME source was the X5 flare
of 06 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained enhanced, but slowly decreased through the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Active to major geomagnetic
storm conditions are expected during the first day as CME effects
continue. Unsettled conditions are expected during the remainder of
the period. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region
9415 during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Apr a 11 Apr
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Apr 169 Previsto 09 Apr-11 Apr 165/165/160 Media de 90 Días 08 Apr 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Apr 017/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Apr 030/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 025/030-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Apr a 11 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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