Viendo archivo del lunes, 12 marzo 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 071 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Mar 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 9373 (S08E34) and 9376 (S15E57) emerged as the most active regions on the visible disk. Region 9373 continues to develop in size and complexity and produced occasional subfaint C-class flares. Region 9376 produced a C4/Sf at 12/1737Z with an associated CME. This region's proximity to the SE limb is still hindering a thorough analysis, but new spots became apparent today in and near this region; moderate complexity is obvious with at least three regions relatively close to each other. An eruption off the SW limb was observed late in the period. It was likely associated with an eruption of a large bushy filament that rotated around the west limb a few days ago. New Regions 9378 (N24W32), 9379 (N31E39), and 9380 (S09E66) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Best chance for a M-flare is from Regions 9373 and 9376.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions existed prior to a shock observed at SOHO/MTOF at approximately 12/0500Z. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed at all latitudes since the shock. This disturbance is presumed to be associated with the 8 Mar, M5/1b flare and CME.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods through day 1.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Mar a 15 Mar
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 Mar 158
  Previsto   13 Mar-15 Mar  155/150/150
  Media de 90 Días        12 Mar 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 11 Mar  002/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Mar a 15 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%20%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%25%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%

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