Viendo archivo del sábado, 7 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 097 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. A single
C-class X-ray flare occurred. Region 9415 (S21E21) remained the
dominant region on the disk with a minor increase in area and spots.
It remained magnetically complex with a strong delta configuration
within its leader spots. Minor growth was reported in Region 9417
(S08E01), but the region remained a simply-structured bipole. New
Regions 9421 (S15W42) and 9422 (S13E78) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm
levels. A shock passed the ACE spacecraft at about 07/1700 UTC,
presumably from the long-duration M5 X-ray flare and halo-CME event
observed on 05 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually
declined, but remained enhanced.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first
two days due to an expected CME passage associated with the X5 flare
of 06 April. The CME is expected to reach Earth around midday
tomorrow. Quiet to active levels are expected on the final day.
There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9415 during
the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Apr a 10 Apr
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 60% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Apr 180 Previsto 08 Apr-10 Apr 175/175/170 Media de 90 Días 07 Apr 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Apr 011/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Apr 025/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 025/030-025/030-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Apr a 10 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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