Viendo archivo del domingo, 11 febrero 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Feb 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 042 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Feb 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity continued low. A C6/1f flare erupted
near the location of spotless plage 9346 (N18W80), at 0123 UTC. A
type II sweep and a halo CME occurred in conjunction with the event.
Region 9338 (S20W28) was still the brightest region in h-alpha, and
produced occasional C-class events. Some minor surging is occurring
at west limb near where Region 9330 (N22W91) is transiting. At east
limb, more impressive surging was seen to accompany the arrival of
newly numbered Region 9350 (N18E69).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. However,
brief active conditions occurred from 0600-0900 UTC at Boulder from
a short-lived substorm. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began about 0600 UTC, following
the C6 event at 0123 UTC. The particle increase reached the 1 pfu
level, most recently at 1025 UTC, before the slow decay now
occurring, commenced.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A glancing blow from today's halo
CME is anticipated mid-to-late in the forecast period, but the
impact on the field should be slight. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux should return to background levels during the next 24
hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Feb 151 Previsto 12 Feb-14 Feb 150/150/155 Media de 90 Días 11 Feb 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 005/005-005/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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