Viendo archivo del domingo, 29 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 303 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9209
(S24E21) showed gradual development with an increase in both
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity. It produced a M4/2B
flare at 29/0157 UTC associated with 1800 sfu Tenflare, Type II and
IV radio sweeps, and a 9-degree filament disappearance. Further
analysis is required to determine if an Earth-directed CME
accompanied this flare. Regions 9212 (N08E61) and 9214 (S11E55)
produced isolated C-class subflares. Both regions showed a slight
degree of magnetic complexity. New Regions 9215 (N20W57) and 9216
(N17W07) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9209 is expected to produce isolated M-class
flares. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this
region.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity varied from unsettled to minor storm
levels. Minor storm levels were observed until 29/1200 UTC due to
sustained southward IMF Bz. Unsettled to active levels occurred
during the remainder of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the first day.
Active conditions are possible during the last two days in response
to today's M4 flare.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Oct a 01 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Oct 187 Previsto 30 Oct-01 Nov 190/195/200 Media de 90 Días 29 Oct 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Oct 017/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Oct 026/028 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 012/018-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Oct a 01 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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