Viendo archivo del sábado, 28 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 302 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. An
unobserved M1 x-ray flare occurred at 1849 UTC. Weather hampered
patrol, but that event is likely from one of the new regions just on
the disk. Newly numbered region 9212 (N06E76) produced a C9/sf at
0710 UTC. Another new region, 9214 (S13E70) has been bright in
H-alpha. The third new region, 9213 (N00E71), has been quiet. The
visible disk has ten spotted regions. Little else of significance
occurred.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the period. The anticipated
shock from the CME on the 25th passed the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 0900 UTC. Enhanced IMF and speed followed, resulting
in a stint of active to minor storm conditions. Unsettled levels
prevailed by the end of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active for the next 24 hours. The
calming trend should continue throughout the interval, with
unsettled conditions dominating the last two days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Oct a 31 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Oct 182 Previsto 29 Oct-31 Oct 185/190/195 Media de 90 Días 28 Oct 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Oct 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Oct 012/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Oct a 31 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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