Viendo archivo del domingo, 22 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a long-duration C3 peaking at 22/0231 UTC. Optical activity
during this event included a SF flare in Region 9203 (N13W43) and an
EPL on the southeast limb near S30E90. Region 9199 (N09W31) has
decayed since yesterday and Region 9201 (N17E06) appears to have
simplified a little.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity is expected to continue and an M-class
flare in Regions 9199 or 9201 is possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until the 22/0900-1200 UTC period.
Afterwards the field has been at unsettled to active levels in
response to a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Oct 160 Previsto 23 Oct-25 Oct 165/165/170 Media de 90 Días 22 Oct 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 015/018-010/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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