Viendo archivo del sábado, 18 noviembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 323 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Nov 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9235 (N12E34)
produced an M1/1f flare at 18/1325Z, with an associated Type II
radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME
directed off the east limb, though not appearing to be earth
directed. Region 9231 (S24E05) also produced an M1/Sf flare at
18/1100Z, as well as an LDE C2/1f flare at 17/2051Z, which was in
progress at the end of last period. Other activity included
numerous C-class flares from regions 9235, 9231, and 9227 (S09W85).
Both regions 9235 and 9231 exhibited increased spot counts. Two new
regions were numbered today, 9236 (N19E71) and 9237 (N10W19).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9231 and 9235 are the most likely sources of
isolated M-class activity. Today's newly numbered regions may also
be a source of moderate activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with a single interval of
unsettled conditions observed at higher latitudes during
18/1800-2100Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above
threshold for most of the day until falling below at 18/2025Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active, with minor storming possible
at higher latitudes, due to the influence of a favorably positioned
coronal hole through day one and into day two. Activity should
decrease to predominately unsettled levels by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Nov 177 Previsto 19 Nov-21 Nov 180/185/185 Media de 90 Días 18 Nov 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 015/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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