Viendo archivo del lunes, 25 septiembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Sep 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 269 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 SEP 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9166 (S12W70)
PRODUCED AN M3/1N FLARE AT 25/0053Z AND SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS FLARES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS REGION HAS UNDERWENT SLOW DECAY OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS, BUT MAINTAINS MODERATE COMPLEXITY. REGION 9169
(N11W22) PRODUCED AN M1 FLARE AT 25/0215Z WITH MODERATE CENTIMETRIC
BURSTS INCLUDING A 450SFU TENFLARE. A CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED. SOME
DECAY WAS NOTED IN THIS LARGE AND MODERATELY COMPLEX REGION WHICH
NOW MEASURES 1400 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 9166 AND 9169 WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES WITH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE LIKELY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. PROLONGED PERIODS OF
SOUTHWARD BZ AND ENHANCED SOLAR WIND SPEED PRODUCED OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE PERIODS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WERE AT MOSTLY MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE PERIODS ON DAY ONE. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON DAY TWO FROM AN EXPECTED CME PASSAGE FROM TODAY'S M1
FLARE IN REGION 9169 AT 02/0215Z. A RETURN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY DAY THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 SEP a 28 SEP
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 SEP 226 Previsto 26 SEP-28 SEP 220/210/200 Media de 90 Días 25 SEP 180
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 SEP 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 SEP 017/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 SEP-28 SEP 015/015-020/020-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 SEP a 28 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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