Viendo archivo del miércoles, 11 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 285 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9182
(N03W51) produced isolated C-class subflares including a
long-duration C2/Sf flare at 11/0627 UTC. This region has gradually
developed during the last two days. Minor growth was also noted in
Region 9190 (S17E35) and newly numbered Region 9192 (S14E02). New
Region 9193 (N10W04) was also numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.There will be chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9182.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with brief active periods.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to active to major storm levels on 12 - 13
October due to an expected CME passage. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 14 October. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high
levels during the latter half of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Oct a 14 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Oct 151 Previsto 12 Oct-14 Oct 150/155/165 Media de 90 Días 11 Oct 179
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Oct 014/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 035/035-020/025-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Oct a 14 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 01% |
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