Viendo archivo del martes, 10 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 284 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9182 (N03W33)
continued in a gradual growth phase and developed a mixed-polarity
(beta-gamma) structure in the leading portion of the group. It
produced a long-duration C6/1f flare at 09/2343 UTC associated with
Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, and a full-halo CME. The remaining
regions were unremarkable including newly numbered Region 9191
(N16E66).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9182.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 10/0600 - 0800 UTC. Quiet to unsettled levels
occurred during the remainder of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 11 October. Field
activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm levels
during 12 - 13 October with major storm periods possible at high
latitudes due to an expected CME passage.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Oct a 13 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Oct 140 Previsto 11 Oct-13 Oct 145/150/155 Media de 90 Días 10 Oct 180
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 002/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Oct 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/010-035/035-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Oct a 13 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 25% | 15% |
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