Viendo archivo del jueves, 28 septiembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Sep 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 272 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 SEP 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE STILL A LARGE SUNSPOT
GROUP, REGION 9169 (N12W58) HAS DECAYED FURTHER AND NOW MEASURES
APPROXIMATELY 790 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA WITH 51 SPOTS.
REGION 9170 (S06W63) HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY.
SLIGHT GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9173 (S12E25), AND THE REGION
HAS PRODUCED A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS. NEW REGION 9178
(S23E63) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. TWO PERIODS OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ARE
NOW NEGLIGIBLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 SEP a 01 OCT
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 SEP 202 Previsto 29 SEP-01 OCT 195/190/180 Media de 90 Días 28 SEP 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 SEP 008/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 SEP 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 SEP-01 OCT 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 SEP a 01 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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