Viendo archivo del miércoles, 27 septiembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Sep 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 271 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 SEP 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C9/1N EVENT FROM REGION 9167 (N14W69). NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS, SUCH AS 9169
(N12W47), 9173 (S13E38) AND NEW REGION 9176 (S10E68). SEVERAL OF
THE MINOR C-CLASS WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGION 9169 SHOWED
NO FURTHER DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY. THE REGION NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 9170 (S06W51) SHOWED SLIGHT GROWTH
DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. NEW
REGIONS 9176, AND 9177 (N28E01) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. REGIONS
9169 AND 9170 ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT. HOWEVER, NEW REGION 9176 NEAR THE EAST LIMB MAY ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE AFFECTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED, NEAR 600 KM/S YESTERDAY, IS
SLOWLY DECREASING AND IS CURRENTLY AVERAGING 500 - 550 KM/S. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS POSSIBLE ON THE FIRST DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 SEP a 30 SEP
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 SEP 205 Previsto 28 SEP-30 SEP 205/200/195 Media de 90 Días 27 SEP 181
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP 017/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP 012/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 SEP a 30 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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