Viendo archivo del domingo, 10 septiembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Sep 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 254 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 SEP 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS A C1/SF FLARE AT 10/0010 UTC, FROM REGION 9158 (N29E32).
X-RAY FLUX SINCE THEN HAS REMAINED AT BACKGROUND LEVELS, EXHIBITING
ONLY B-CLASS FLARING.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 9158 AND 9154 (S17W75) ARE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR C-CLASS
FLARES. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY STILL EXIST FROM
REGIONS 9154 AND 9151 (N10W87) UNTIL THEY TRANSIT THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS, WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF ACTIVE LEVELS NEAR THE END OF DAY ONE, DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SHOCK ARRIVAL FROM THE CME ACTIVITY NOTED ON 09/0849 UTC. ACTIVE
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR DAY TWO AND INTO DAY THREE. A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING DURING SHOCK PASSAGE ALSO EXISTS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 SEP a 13 SEP
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 SEP 141 Previsto 11 SEP-13 SEP 140/135/130 Media de 90 Días 10 SEP 180
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 SEP 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 SEP 004/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 SEP-13 SEP 018/020-020/020-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 SEP a 13 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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